Ekathimerini – The Worst-Case Scenario

Quote from the commentary by Nikos Konstandaras: “That is why among the positive aspects of our time is the deep understanding that if we do not wipe out the structural weaknesses and injustices of our society, if we do not support institutions, and if we do not believe in the way out, we will remain stuck here (at best)”.

Well, the possible bad news is worse than described above!

Greece, in the bad scenario, will not simply “remain stuck here”. She will fall back one or two decades. A poor man who hits the jackpot and decides to spend it all on consumption will live very well for perhaps 10 years. When the money is gone, he has to return to the standard of living of 10 years ago. Greece did not hit a jackpot. She took up debt. Now the new money has stopped but the debt is still there.

If the process of de-industrialization (imports) and de-capitalization (capital flight) of the economy is not stopped in a hurry, the following scenario will unfold.

The banking sector will become insolvent the same day when the ECB stops sending new money. Bank deposits will have to be frozen. Imports – including necessary imports – will come to a halt. In short: the economy will stop functioning.

One part of Greeks (surely the majority) will go into panic. The other part (surely the minority) will continue to enjoy their luxury homes and have their yachts parked in luxury harbors on luxury islands. The freeze of bank deposits will not hurt them because they can draw on their foreign bank accounts for the cash they need in order to continue their luxury lives.

Is there anyone out there who believes that social peace (perhaps even democracy) will or can survive such a scenario? If there is, please come back to your senses!!!

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