Over the last few years, I have been incredibly impressed by his good judgement on Greek issues. I won’t say that he has never been wrong but it seems to me that he has almost always been right.
In June of this year, he told me that I should look out for Friday, January 11, 2013. Why? Because, he said, on that day Greece would announce its exit from the Eurozone. I downplayed his judgement by saying that anybody could predict a day but what I would want to know is the exact hour. That’s when he committed to 22 hrs on that day.
So here we go. The world did not come to an end on December 21. We’ll now see whether Greece exits the Eurozone on January 11, 2013 at 22 hrs.
My friend’s reasoning was interesting. Remember that in June of this year, everyone was predicting a Grexit within months; certainly before the end of the year. My friend argued that a Grexit would have to happen when nobody expected it.
He said that, by year-end, most of the tough decisions would have been taken. The negotiations with the Troika would be over; the overdue tranche would be disbursed; the fears of a Grexit would have died down; the Eurozone would have calmed down. Only, the Greek government would meanwhile have become convinced that Greece could not make it within the Eurozone.
Thus, the Grexit would be announced on the first possible date in 2013. It would have to be a Friday evening. Friday the 4th would still be in the holiday season, so that wouldn’t be a good fit. Friday the 11th would be the first ‘regular’ Friday in 2013.
So, as New Years’ Eve approaches, many people feel like making bets. If you believe what my friend is saying, bet on a Grexit on Friday, January 11, 2013 at 22 hrs. And even if you don’t believe it, place the bet anyway. If you win, everyone will consider you a genius and if you lose, no one will find out.
Except, don’t place that bet with me!